my newest blog buddy has been tom haskins. we met via a dialogue regarding november's the big question on learning circuits blog. since then we've been commenting back and forth on each other's blogs and had a bit of backchannel conversation as well by email. a prime example of the network effect impacting learning. i find tom's ideas to be intelligent, stimulating and challenging. i love that!
his posts in response to lcb's december big question(s) are no exception. in two posts, version 3 in 2007 and challenges posed by my forecast he predicts that web 3.0 will emerge in 2007 and the next logical step from what we call web 2.0. briefly, he sees a vision of content being learner/user centric in not only it's focus but also in its creation and aggregation. this will be accomplished in an environment free of the confines of software, websites, hardware, and mobile boundaries.
(before i get into the substance, let me be one of the first to say, that we will not be able to refer to this vision as web 3.0. as tom predicts, the web, software, hardware, and mobile devices will be blurred together to the point that me might not even view it as the web anymore. i'm not sure what to call it, but web 3.0 doesn't work.)
while i pretty much agree with tom's vision of the future, i do have reservations about the timing. with the ieee 802.11n standard for wireless broadband not expected to be finalized until 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2007, it is unlikely that the vendors of the mobile devices will be able to gain much traction before the end of the year. add to this that someone, instructional designers or others, will have to step up and create the paradigms and best practices that will inform the next revolution in learning and we'll more likely see beta testing and leading edge adoption of tom's vision nearer to the end of 2008 at best. i also believe that microsoft vista will have a great impact on "what we end up doing" versus "what we could be doing" in the near future.
finally, while tom raises some very soul searching questions that every learning professional would benefit by answering for themselves, there are other factors which impact the type of change that tom is suggesting. ulises mejias speaks of his in his short but stimulating article "a nomad's guide to learning and social software" which appeared on the knowledge tree in 2005. he says:
these complex tensions include, among other things, issues of access and knowledge diffusion: what factors determine who has access to the technology, and what mechanisms are in place to facilitate or obstruct the diffusion of knowledge from technologized to non-technologized realms of social life.
these non-learning factors will have a major impact on the advancement and adoption of the next paradigm in learning. as has been the case with web 2.0, learning professionals will not only have to learn and prepare to help learners succeed with the new paradigm. but at the same time we will need to be the cheerleaders and champions of the new approach to our companies, institutions, and the public in general.
surely the beginning efforts of tom's web 3.0 will appear before this time next year, but it will be a while before we reach the tipping point for these changes.
so once again, tom. we agree in the end, but disagree on some of the details. but isn't that what this is all about?
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