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December 17, 2006


Tom Haskins

Thanks for the kudos and the refinements to my forecast. I agree with every way you suggest to "hold my horses". When I was formulating my forecast, the big question I had in mind was "what changes are forthcoming?", rather than "when will they appear?" As you said, the changes in mobile computing, new software, etc will come late in 2007 at the earliest. In the week since I wrote the forecast, I've become more aware of the magnitude of debugging and software (AI, SaaS, etc) development work to move from 2.0 to 3.0 -- that will take more than a year also. My most recent exploration of the obstacles to adoption of Web 2.0 tools in eLearning also changes the pace of my forecast to a much slower roll out.

I agree that Web 3.0 is an inadequate label for how ubiquitous and unobtrusive the access will become. We currently associate the web with logging in, moving around within its confines and using tools to interface with it. We need a new word to encompass the freedom on the horizon. Our culture of journalists and bloggers has no problem inventing new words as the occasion arises. Our big challenge in eLearning will be the psychological hurdles I portrayed, not the pace of the change or the technological innovations required.

Jim Belshaw

Dave, I just wanted to wish you and yours a happy Christmas and a great new year. I know that this has been a difficult year, I had problems too,but I really believe that 2007 will be better. I look forward to our continuing dialogue.

dave lee

jim: thank you and the same to you and yours. i'm sorry you've had such a rough year too. but as i said in my reflection post, and you've also reflected, monetary and material things may have been on the downturn, but it seems we were both fortunate enough to find the lessons to be learned from our experiences. i'm thankful to have met you this year and look forward to collaborating with you in the new year. happy holidays! - dave

dave lee

those psychological issues you raise, in my mind, will be crucial to whether or not the vision you portrayed will happen sooner or later. you and i can see how compelling the future is, but unless we succeed in passing along the vision and produce results that are compelling, the transition will take much longer than we anticipate.

but we can worry about that after the first of the year. for now, i hope you and those you hold dear have a save and happy holidays.


Tom Haskins

You're so right dave. We may even collaborate next year on bringing that vision into results that sell themselves. Happy Holidays to you and yours as well.

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